Global Copper Supply and Demand May Balance through 2009

Global supply and demand of electrolytic copper may balance through 2009. Initial forecasts by International Copper Study Group (ICSG) or Japanese smelters were annual oversupply by 200,000-500,000 tonnes. However, Chinese demand has expanded during the first half year or State Reserves Bureau of China has increased its copper stockpile. As a result, global supply and demand balance would become tighter than originally expected.

ICSG forecasted in April global electrolytic copper production would decrease by 3.7% to 17.57 million tonnes in 2009 from 2008 while the consumption would lower by 4.3% to 17.23 million tonnes. Consequently the supply was expected to become surplus against the demand by 350,000 tonnes through 2009, wider than the oversupply by 250,000 tonnes in 2008.

However, Chinese demand expansion was even larger than originally expected in the first half year of 2009. Yoshihiro Nishiyama, director of Pan Pacific Copper (PPC), indicated global copper supply and demand might balance or become slight oversupply in 2009.

PPC, Japanese largest copper smelter, previously forecasted global copper supply would become surplus against the demand by 400,000-500,000 tonnes through 2009. Meanwhile, China imported electrolytic copper of total 1.4 million tonnes during January-May. The monthly import volume has revised the record every month since February. The 5-month import already reached the annual import volume in 2008.

Mr. Nishiyama explained Chinese current procurement is based on long-term contracts, not by spot purchasing. The eager purchase settled down. However, Chinese annual import could reach 2 million tonnes through 2009 if the monthly import keeps the usual level at around 100,000 tonnes in and after June.