Japan Cu Alloy Product Shipment Forecasted at 714,000T for F2009

Japanese copper alloy fabricators’ total shipment is forecasted to decrease by 11.5% to 713,930 tonnes including export for fiscal 2009 (April 2009-March 2010) compared with fiscal 2008, announced Japan Copper & Brass Association on Friday. The volume would be the lowest since 720,065 tonnes in fiscal 1976. Demand maintains stagnant for brass bar and copper tube under slow economy though demand for copper sheet and strip turned upward.

The association forecasted brass bar shipment would decrease by 18.4% to 154,090 tonnes through fiscal 2009 from fiscal 2008. The volume is estimated at 73,090 tonnes for April-September, down by 32.6% from the same period of fiscal 2008, and 81,000 tonnes for October-March, down by 0.8% year-to-year. The demand has gradually recovered since April but the total level still stays low. The demand is stagnant from construction related applications such as water taps, valves and gas appliances.

Copper tube shipment is forecasted to decrease by 13.7% to 121,950 tonnes through fiscal 2009 from fiscal 2008. About 80% is consumed for air conditioners and refrigerators. The demand from the industry maintains inactive. Another negative factor is the underlying trend of expanding overseas production by Japanese air conditioner makers.

On the other hand, copper sheet and strip shipment was forecasted to edge lower by 3.8% to 221,270 tonnes for fiscal 2009 from fiscal 2008. The minus range is narrower than other items. The volume is estimated at 99,440 tonnes for April-September, down by 32% year-to-year, and 121,830 tonnes for October-March, up by 45.6% year-to-year. Demand for copper strip recovered to 80% level in July-August compared with a year earlier, especially from semiconductor leadframes. Fabricators’ shipment is also increasing for connector pins.