Japan Major Steels Face Tougher Export Market

Japanese major steel makers’ export condition gets worse recently while the export supported their production recovery. Chinese market price decreased since August due to the overproduction and overstock. Chinese price is still decreasing even after Chinese National Day holiday. With cheaper Chinese offer, export price decreased and transaction with less than FOB US$ 500 per tonne for hot rolled coil increases in Asian market. Japanese major steel makers now hold the offer when they almost finished the negotiation for October-December. However, Japanese steel export could decrease depending on market price level and yen rate.

Chinese raw steel output increased by 5.2% to 370 million tonnes in January-August from same period of 2008. The output increased by 22% to 52 million tonnes. With the high pace, the production could exceed 570 million tonnes in 2009.

Chinese steel demand increases for construction and automobile when the government expends for civil works under 4 trillion yuan of stimulus package and the automobile production is more than 10 million units for the year. However, the steel market price is weak in eastern China due to overstock. Under the weak market, Baoshan Iron and Steel and Wuhan Iron and Steel cut the selling price for hot coil and other products for domestic market for November.

Chinese steel export decreased by 68.6% to 13 million tonnes in January-August from same period of 2008. The annual export volume is expected to be around 20 million tonnes. However, mid- and small-sized Chinese steel makers and trading companies try to expand the export recently to reduce the overstock. Some Chinese steel makers offer less than FOB US$ 500 per tonne for South Korean buyers, which are also major buyers for Japanese major steel makers.

Japanese major steel makers plan to increase the raw steel output in October-December to more than 80% of recent peak level under higher demand for export and automobile. However, their sales condition is getting worse under Chinese export drive, South Korean makers’ new supply capacity for shipbuilding and rerollers, higher yen rate and Japanese appliances and automobile makers’ offshore shift.