Japan Cemented Carbide Tool Shipment Forecasted at 200B Yen for F2009

Japanese domestic shipment of cemented carbide tools is forecasted at 114.6 billion yen for the second half of fiscal 2009 (October-March), up by 6.4% from the same period of fiscal 2008, announced by Japan Cemented Carbide Tool Manufacturers’ Association on Friday. The annual shipment is estimated at 200.5 billion yen for fiscal 2009 including 85.9 billion yen in the first half year. The annual shipment would represent 29.3% lower than fiscal 2008 and hit the lowest since fiscal 2001 though monthly shipment bottomed out in April 2009.

The range of drop between fiscal 2008 and 2009 is the historically widest although the shipment dropped by 20.6% in fiscal 2008 from the record 357.2 billion yen in fiscal 2007.

Monthly shipment already turned upward. 3-month shipment value represented 1% quarter-to-quarter increase for April-June and 20.8% for July-September. The shipment is expected to represent 13% quarter-to-quarter recovery for October-December and 15.8% for January-March.

About 40% of the shipment value is related to automobile industry. These figures are in line with car makers’ output recovery. Demand has also recovered from electric appliances. As to export of cemented carbide tools, the shipment value has recovered for China and Asian countries earlier than USA and Europe.

Despite of the gradual recovery, annual shipment of cemented carbide tools would become 30% lower than fiscal 2008. In the second half of fiscal 2009, automakers’ output slowdown is concerned. Japanese cemented carbide tool makers suppose car production could sustain high level for January-March despite of slight downturn. They are even afraid of wide drop in April-June 2010.