Japanese Trader Forecasts LME Al Price at US$ 1,800-2,600 in 2010

Mitsubishi Shoji Light Metal Sales Corporation, Japanese major aluminium trader, forecasts primary aluminium price range at London Metal Exchange (LME) to be US$ 1,800-2,600 per tonne for 2010. The company expects LME primary aluminium price would surge in the first 6 months due to excessive liquidity bubble while enter the adjustment phase after mid 2010 eyeing Federal Reserve Board’s interest rate raise. Then the price is expected to turn uptrend again in 2011.

The company formed the price forecast based on Commodity Research Unit’s report about global primary aluminium market announced in October 2009.

According to CRU’s report, global demand for primary aluminium is forecasted at 36.802 million tonnes and the global supply at 39.037 million tonnes in 2010. The supply would be surplus by 2.235 million tonnes. For 2009, the global demand was estimated at 33.794 million tonnes and the global supply at 37.462 million tonnes. Oversupply range is expected to narrower in 2010.

CRU estimates Chinese annual demand for primary aluminium at 14.758 million tonnes and the supply at 15.808 million tonnes for 2010. The supply would surplus against the demand for the first time since 2008.