World Primary Al Short at 8 Million tonnes in 2020, Japan Industry

World’s primary aluminium ingot supply could be near 8 million tonnes of shortage in 2020, announced by Japan Aluminium Association on Wednesday. The association expects the demand will increase to almost double at 73.9 million tonnes in 2020 from estimated 38 million tonnes for 2010 while the supply is only 66 million tonnes for 2020. The association suggested Japanese aluminium industry should improve aluminium recycling and secure captive offshore ingot.

The association expects the demand in China will increase to 43.6 million tonnes in 2020 from estimated 15 million tonnes in 2010 while the demand in Brazil will increase to 2.5 million tonnes from 1.5 million tonnes. China will account for around 60% of world’s aluminium demand in 2020.

The association expects the supply capacity is 66 million tonnes in 2020, which is around 8 million tonnes lower than the forecasted demand. The association warns the short supply could increase to more than 10 million tonnes when some old smelters would be closed by 2020. The association concerns aluminium majors could close smelters in Europe and USA due to due to higher electricity cost.