Japan Rebar Demand Forecasted to Lower by 3.8% to 7.12MT in F2010

Japanese rebar demand is forecasted to decrease by 3.8% to 7.12 million tonnes in fiscal 2010 ending in March 2011 compared with fiscal 2009, according to Non-Integrated Steel Producers’ Association. The demand would hit the lowest since 7.295 million tonnes of fiscal 1976. The association estimates rebar demand would maintain stagnant despite of slight recovery of Japanese new housing starts since the end of March 2009. Low trend of public investment for civil engineering would also impact the demand. However, the association’s official explained the year-to-year minus would narrower to single digit in fiscal 2010.

Japanese rebar demand totaled 7.399 million tonnes in fiscal 2009 while the association had forecasted the demand shrinks to 7.24-7.92 million tonnes. The market declined by over 30% from 10.861 million tonnes of the recent peak in fiscal 2006.

As of the end of May, unsold condominiums were approximately 5,700 units around Tokyo and 4,200 units around Osaka. New condominium sales were about 3,800 units around Tokyo and 1,800 units around Osaka. The indicators show slight recovery in large cities while maintain stagnant in local areas.

Rebar demand for civil engineering is estimated to decrease by 5% in fiscal 2010 from fiscal 2009, based on the statistics by Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry.