Japan Rolled Copper Demand to Recover 900,000T in F2014

Japanese rolled copper demand will be 907,430 tonnes including export in fiscal 2014 ending March 2015, announced by Japan Copper and Brass Association on Wednesday. The outlook is same as the volume announced in March with no major chance in fundamentals. The association revised the outlook in fiscal 2010 downward to 865,400 tonnes, which is around 1% lower than previous outlook. The demand will increase slightly from fiscal 2009 due to adjustment in second half of the year while the recovery in the first half.

The association expects the demand will increase by averaged 3.8% per year through fiscal 2014. The demand will increase to 867,150 tonnes in fiscal 2011, 884,330 tonnes in fiscal 2012 and 896,030 tonnes in fiscal 2013.

The demand will increase to historical high level for copper flat and strip products in fiscal 2012 as record 289,253 tonnes in fiscal 2007. The demand will reach 301,000 tonnes in fiscal 2014. The demand will increase for connector and lead frame for automobile and electronics equipments. The association also expects the rolled copper foil demand will increase for negative electrode material of lithium ion battery.

The brass bar demand will increase to 202,500 tonnes in fiscal 2014, which is 4.1% higher than fiscal 2009 level. The demand recovers for automobile and valve related parts while the demand is still lower than 230,000-250,000 tonnes level in fiscal 2001-2007.

The demand of copper tube is 113,500 tonnes in fiscal 2014 due to decrease from fiscal 2011 while the demand will increase in fiscal 2010 from fiscal 2009. The demand will decrease when air conditioner makers shift the production to offshore plants.

The association expects the rolled copper demand is 437,050 tonnes in first half of fiscal 2010, which is around 3% higher than previous outlook of 424,950 tonnes. The association expects the demand is 428,350 tonnes in the second half, which is lower than 430,540 tonnes previously. The association revised the brass bar demand downward to 120,400 tonnes in the second half, which is around 6,000 lower than previous outlook, due to slower demand for automobile.