World Primary Al Demand to Increase by 7.7%, Mitsui & Co

World’s primary aluminium demand will increase by 7.7% to 42.399 million tonnes in 2011 from 2010, according to Japanese major trading firm, Mitsui & Co. The supply increases by 5.5% to 43.334 million tonnes, which is 935,000 tonnes more than the demand. The firm expects the price is estimated at US$ 2,100-2,800 per tonne at London Metal Exchange in 2011.

The firm expects the demand in 2011 increases for 2 years in a row when economy in emerging countries continues growing and economy recovers in Europe and USA without another recession.

The firm expects the demand in China increases by 10.0% to 18.008 million tonnes in 2011 from 2010 due to steady growth in automobile sales while the demand is impacted by tight credit policy.

The firm expects the supply in China will increase by 10.4% to 17.756 million tonnes in 2011 from 2010. Despite the production decrease in end of 2010 under electric power supply cut by Chinese government, the supply would increase in 2011. In India, Hindalco Industries plans to start the operation of 2 smelters by the end of 2011.

The firm expects the LME price is US$ 2,100-2,600 per tonne in January-June 2011 and US$ 2,200-2,800 in July-December. The firm expects the Japan premium decreases to US$ 95-105 per tonne level from US$ 108-113 in April-June and US$ 100-110 in July-September due to higher supply in Middle East.