Potential Cold Rolled Flat Steel Overcapacity in Vietnam

Cold rolled steel mill projects are planned one after another in Vietnam. Local Hoa Sen group adds a cold rolling mill and local galvanizing steel makers enter into upstream of cold rolling operations. State owned Phu My Flat Steel and South Korean POSCO’s subsidiary already launched cold rolling mills and Taiwanese China Steel and Japanese Sumitomo Metal Industries launches joint cold rolling mill by end of 2012. The total capacity would reach near 5 million tonnes per year. The capacity is much higher than around 1.5 million tonnes of Vietnamese demand expanding Vietnamese export to Southeast Asian market.

Vietnamese cold rolled flat steel demand increases by around 10% per year. The demand is expected to increase to 2 million tonnes in 2013 when planned cold rolling mill projects complete. The capacity will be much higher than domestic demand.

The cold rolling capacity is now around 2 million tonnes in Vietnam. Phu My Flat Steel has total 600,000 tonnes of capacity including the group company’s 200,000 tonnes of capacity. However, the group’s production was a half of the capacity in 2010 due to severe competition. POSCO Vietnam, which launched the operation in 2009, keeps full capacity operation while the firm exports a half of the production. Hoa Sen group, which has 180,000 tonnes of cold rolling capacity, plans to add 2 cold rolling mills with 200,000 tonnes of annual output capacity each in 2011.

Construction steel oriented galvanizing steel makers will enter into cold rolling operation. Local 3 makers plan to build 2 mills with 200,000 tonnes of annual output capacity each and a 100,000 tonnes mill in the year. They will consume the cold rolled flat steel at their downstream operations but the additional capacity will impact on the domestic supply balance.

Vietnamese cold rolled flat steel demand is mainly for construction when the industry is still under development for manufacturers compared with Thailand and Malaysia. POSCO and China Steel/Sumitomo Metals eye Southeast Asian market while Thailand has 2 cold rolling mills with each 1 million tonnes of annual output capacity and Malaysia has 4 cold rolling companies with total 2.5 million tonnes of capacity while Chinese and South Korean makers export cold rolled flat steel to South Asian market. Japanese steel makers focus on high valued products including automotive flat steel but potential overcapacity could impact on the pricing.