Japan Steel Export Forecasts to Decrease by 5% in 2011

Japanese steel export is expected to decrease by around 5% to around 41 million tonnes in 2011 from 2010. The export decreased by 4% to 37.781 million tonnes for January-November 2011 from the corresponding period of last year, according to Ministry of Finance. Japanese steel makers’ competitive power for export dropped due to high yen rate. Overseas Japanese manufactures decreased production activity due to influence of the Great East Japan Earthquake and flood in Thailand. However, the export is expected to be over 41 million tonnes for 2 consecutive years, but seems to continue severe situation after the beginning of next year when high yen rate maintains and the demand growth slows down in emerging countries due to financial crisis in Europe.

The export was over 4 million tonnes in March 2011 for the first time in 12 months, while dropped in April and May rapidly after the mega earthquake. The export decreased to over 3.2 million tonnes in September due to economic adjustment in China and high yen rate, and decreased by 14.8% to 3.023 million tonnes in November from a year earlier due to the flood in Thailand, which decreased by 10.2% from October.

The export decreased by 21.2% to 2.357 million tonnes to Asia in November from a year earlier and by 15.3% from October, which decreased by 25.1% and 31.6% to 711,000 tonnes to ASEAN. The export decreased by 25.2% and 11.5% to 973,000 tonnes to South Korea, while decreased by 21% and 3.8% to 503,000 tonnes to China.

On the other hand, Japanese steel import is expected to increase by above 10% to around 8 million tonnes in 2011 from 2010, which to be over 8 million tonnes for the first time in 4 years. The import increased by 13.9% to 7.256 million tonnes for January-November 2011 from the same period of last year. The import decreases when price competitive power of domestic steel products decreased against imported products by high yen rate or overseas steel makers increased the export to Japan.

The import increased by 22.7% to 761,642 tonnes in November from a year earlier, which increased for 7 consecutive months. The export increased by 32.2% to 635,049 million tonnes from Asia.