JISF Forecasts Japanese Y/Y Lower Crude Steel Output in F2012

Japan Iron & Steel Federation (JISF) announced on Tuesday Japanese annual crude steel output is estimated to decreases by 5% to 105-106 million tonnes in fiscal 2011 ending in March 2012. The production is forecasted to maintain above 100 million tonnes in fiscal 2012 while to represent year-to-year minus. JISF forecasts domestic steel demand decreases from manufacturing industry in fiscal 2012 while recovers for building constructions. Steel export is expected to maintain the year-to-year same level if oversupply situation is solved in Asian market.

JISF analyzes domestic steel demand has steadily recovered in fiscal 2011 while export market has worsened due to high yen rate, economic slowdown and steel oversupply in Asia.

In fiscal 2012, domestic demand is expected to upturn mainly for building constructions including reconstructions in the disaster areas while likely to decline from manufacturing industry due to unclear world economic trend and low export under high yen rate. Domestic steel demand would decrease slightly as total.

As for the export, steel consumption is basically expected to maintain sustainable growth mainly in Asia and other emerging countries. Asian steel market condition can improve when advanced countries avoid economic deterioration. Japanese steel export could keep approximately 40 million tonnes in fiscal 2012 with these terms.