Triland Metals Forecasts Base Metal Prices Recover in 2009

Triland Metals, a ring dealing member of London Metal Exchange, forecasts the annual average of 3-month future copper price would become US$ 7,000-7,200 per tonne through 2009 in its seasonal report published in October. The trader revised down the forecast price by US$ 400 from the previous estimation announced in July 2008 with expectations that LME copper price may keep downward in a short term with weak demand and that copper concentrate supply would become tighter due to productive troubles.

As to other base metals, the trader pointed out that the recent market prices are lower than marginal lines for aluminium, zinc and nickel. Triland Metals forecasts the production of these metals would decrease due to worse profitability while the demand could recover during January-March 2009. The annual averages of these base metals could become higher than the current level.

The trader described in its report that current market prices of aluminium, zinc and nickel are at the same or lower level compared with the marginal lines. Triland Metals expects the producers might enter output reductions due to worse profits and the market prices could be stable at the certain level.

The trader also expects the demand for nonferrous metals from construction market might hit the bottom at the end of 2008 or the beginning of 2009. For example, the firm estimates the annual growth rate of global copper consumption would become 4.2% in 2009 from 3.2% in 2008.